The Spanish M&A market opens 2026 with the wind at its back. The normalisation of interest rates — with the ECB in the 2.5%-3.0% range following the 2024-2025 cutting cycle — restores the conditions for private capital to deploy accumulated dry powder. Strategic buyers, having maintained clean balance sheets and completed the integration of previous acquisitions, are returning to active inorganic growth agendas. Forecast transaction activity for 2026 exceeds 2025 across all size segments.
Why 2026 Could Be the Best Year for M&A Since 2021
The convergence of several factors creates optimal conditions for the deal market this year. First, the cost of acquisition debt has fallen significantly: LBO spreads in Spain are back in the EURIBOR plus 450-500 basis point range, versus 700-750 in 2023, allowing transactions to be structured with greater leverage without destroying returns.
Second, private equity funds have spent two years investing below target pace, generating pressure on investment teams to deploy capital and reducing selectivity in the screening process. Iberian-focused funds and international funds with Spanish mandates are estimated to hold over €10 billion in dry powder.
Third, the Spanish macroeconomic environment is supportive: GDP is growing above the European average, the labour market remains strong, and key sectors such as tourism, technology and renewable energy are posting record activity.
The Star Sectors of 2026: Where Activity Will Concentrate
Technology: Applied AI and Cybersecurity
Artificial intelligence applied to business processes (automation, advanced analytics, customer service) and cybersecurity are the most sought-after technology subsegments. Growth funds and international technology corporates are willing to pay premium multiples for companies with proprietary AI products, established customer bases and high retention rates. ARR multiples for applied AI software sit in the 6x-12x range for companies growing above 30%.
Healthcare: Mid-Market Consolidation
Following the first wave of consolidation driven by large platform players, the mid-market healthcare segment — specialist clinics, primary care physician groups, rehabilitation centres, mental health units — is recording the highest relative activity. EBITDA multiples for well-managed specialist clinics remain in the 8x-11x range, supported by the inelasticity of demand and contracts with private insurers.
Digital Infrastructure: Data Centres and Fibre
The explosion in compute capacity demand for AI is driving an investment wave in Spanish data centres — the second most sought-after location in Southern Europe after northern Italy. Fibre optic assets in rural areas (universal FTTP obligation) and data centres with access to green energy are the assets most in demand from infrastructure funds and international utilities.
Financial Services: Consolidation of Asset Managers and Mature Fintechs
Consolidation in the wealth and asset management sector continues, with private equity funds acquiring independent mid-sized asset managers to build platforms at greater scale. Simultaneously, fintechs that have graduated from the initial growth phase and reached profitability are being acquired by traditional banking institutions that prefer to buy technology capability rather than develop it in-house.
Energy: Storage and EV Charging Networks
Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) and electric vehicle charging infrastructure networks are the energy transition assets attracting the greatest investor appetite in 2026. Spain is one of Europe’s most active markets for fast-charging rollout, with several operator consolidation projects under way.
Valuations in 2026: Normalisation with Quality Differentiation
The 2026 valuation environment reflects a healthy normalisation. Average multiples have bounced back from the 2023 lows but have not returned to the excesses of 2021. The market now differentiates with greater precision between high-quality businesses — recurring revenue, visibility, scalability, defensible moats — and mediocre ones.
For high-quality businesses in demand sectors, EV/EBITDA multiples sit in the 9x-14x range. For mature businesses with low growth, multiples compress to 5x-7x. The quality premium — the gap between the multiple commanded by an excellent business and a mediocre one in the same sector — is wider today than at any point in the past decade.
Deal Structuring Trends: The Return of Moderate Leverage
With more rational financing costs, LBO structures are returning to moderate leverage of 4x-5x EBITDA of senior debt. The direct lending market from private debt funds has gained significant market share over traditional banks, particularly for transactions in the €20-100 million enterprise value range, where debt funds offer greater structuring flexibility and lighter covenant packages.
The unitranche — a single tranche combining senior and subordinated debt — is the most common financing instrument for mid-market LBOs in Spain in 2026, enabling faster deal closings than traditional bifurcated debt structures.
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